Tuesday, November 15, 2005
SENT NOV. 5, 2004
Here are two interesting (and short) updates on the Ukrainian elections:
It is apparently becoming clear that the central electoral commission announced a halt to vote counting after it had become clear that the votes in the central, southern, and eastern parts of Ukraine--the areas, especially the latter two, where support for Janukovych is greatest--would not give Viktor Janukovych a clear, greater than 50% majority. Thus, it is now clear that most of the uncounted votes come from western Ukraine, where Jushchenko is the obvious winner in this competition. Also, it is important to remember that the central Ukrainian Kyiv oblast (state) and the capital city of Kyiv itself voted overwhelmingly in favor of Jushchenko--a shock to all. Thus, it now appears that the Jushchenko campaign gained a very clear majority in the first round (greater than the 1 point spread the electoral commission is claiming between the two candidates), and very possibly in truth won the competition with more than 50% of the votes. All of which varifies the claims that have been consistenly made by the Jushchenko campaign itself, which has been claiming a lead and potential victory according to its own exit polls on the day of the election and its own post-election counts.
In this context, Viktor Jushchenko has called for demonstrations on Saturday, November 6 (my b-day!). By the way, I would like to mention that Jushchenko is much less gun-hoe about demonstations than other oppositionists, or is more measured in his calls to demonstrate, for which he has often been criticized by fellow oppositionists--particularly in the past by Julija Tymoshenko, one of the most firey of opposition figures, who has frequently suggested that Yushchenko is meak on people's power. But in comparison to a Kerry (or a Gore), he is a much tougher adversary for a status quo candidate.
Then, I just thought to mention one interesting tid-bit about election day about which I had perviously forgot to mention. On the day of the election, I left L'viv for Pidhajtsi at 12:50 PM. I have travelled this route many times, and only once has the bus ever been stopped by Ukraine's infamous militsija (i.e., police). The police like to station themselves on the highways and pull over cars, check their documents, and everyone here tells the story of their taking bribes instead of giving fines. Well, on election day, the bus was stopped three times, and we were held for up to 20 minutes or more each time, which is much longer than a routine stop should take. This was ridiculous, and demands an interpretation. Was this one of the stalling and/or intimidation tactics planned by the presidential administration? If the bus had been full of students or obvious Jushchenko supporters, would there have been greater delays? The bus was nearly empty, but everyone got tense. People started complaining that we had to get going, they needed to vote, etc. People on the bus wondered out loud the things I just wrote above. Who knows--maybe the militsija was really out en force to protect "public safety" on election day. But the accuracy of that statement needs to checked against the general conception of what the militsija are in this country--according to most, corrupt--and against all the stories coming out from around the country of the actions of militsijonery before and on the day of election. Stories such as, on the day of the election, roaming buses of police with special documents claiming their right to vote, and apparently their right to vote again and again at various different polling stations; as well as many stories about police having had stopped buses and even trains on their way to the pro-Jushchenko rally the week before the election. But all I will say was that it was highly unusual to be stopped so many times on this trip; that it was no coincidence that it was election day; and that the stops definitely held us up, created an atmosphere of intimidation, and pissed off the people on the bus.
Us'oho najkrashchoho (All the Best),
Stefan
It is apparently becoming clear that the central electoral commission announced a halt to vote counting after it had become clear that the votes in the central, southern, and eastern parts of Ukraine--the areas, especially the latter two, where support for Janukovych is greatest--would not give Viktor Janukovych a clear, greater than 50% majority. Thus, it is now clear that most of the uncounted votes come from western Ukraine, where Jushchenko is the obvious winner in this competition. Also, it is important to remember that the central Ukrainian Kyiv oblast (state) and the capital city of Kyiv itself voted overwhelmingly in favor of Jushchenko--a shock to all. Thus, it now appears that the Jushchenko campaign gained a very clear majority in the first round (greater than the 1 point spread the electoral commission is claiming between the two candidates), and very possibly in truth won the competition with more than 50% of the votes. All of which varifies the claims that have been consistenly made by the Jushchenko campaign itself, which has been claiming a lead and potential victory according to its own exit polls on the day of the election and its own post-election counts.
In this context, Viktor Jushchenko has called for demonstrations on Saturday, November 6 (my b-day!). By the way, I would like to mention that Jushchenko is much less gun-hoe about demonstations than other oppositionists, or is more measured in his calls to demonstrate, for which he has often been criticized by fellow oppositionists--particularly in the past by Julija Tymoshenko, one of the most firey of opposition figures, who has frequently suggested that Yushchenko is meak on people's power. But in comparison to a Kerry (or a Gore), he is a much tougher adversary for a status quo candidate.
Then, I just thought to mention one interesting tid-bit about election day about which I had perviously forgot to mention. On the day of the election, I left L'viv for Pidhajtsi at 12:50 PM. I have travelled this route many times, and only once has the bus ever been stopped by Ukraine's infamous militsija (i.e., police). The police like to station themselves on the highways and pull over cars, check their documents, and everyone here tells the story of their taking bribes instead of giving fines. Well, on election day, the bus was stopped three times, and we were held for up to 20 minutes or more each time, which is much longer than a routine stop should take. This was ridiculous, and demands an interpretation. Was this one of the stalling and/or intimidation tactics planned by the presidential administration? If the bus had been full of students or obvious Jushchenko supporters, would there have been greater delays? The bus was nearly empty, but everyone got tense. People started complaining that we had to get going, they needed to vote, etc. People on the bus wondered out loud the things I just wrote above. Who knows--maybe the militsija was really out en force to protect "public safety" on election day. But the accuracy of that statement needs to checked against the general conception of what the militsija are in this country--according to most, corrupt--and against all the stories coming out from around the country of the actions of militsijonery before and on the day of election. Stories such as, on the day of the election, roaming buses of police with special documents claiming their right to vote, and apparently their right to vote again and again at various different polling stations; as well as many stories about police having had stopped buses and even trains on their way to the pro-Jushchenko rally the week before the election. But all I will say was that it was highly unusual to be stopped so many times on this trip; that it was no coincidence that it was election day; and that the stops definitely held us up, created an atmosphere of intimidation, and pissed off the people on the bus.
Us'oho najkrashchoho (All the Best),
Stefan
