Sunday, October 23, 2005
Viktor Yushchenko-Reluctant Revolutionary? From Tuesady, Nov. 30, 2004
I wrote this from Ukraine to my list-serve last year on Tuesday, Nov. 30. It was written in reaction to events that had begun on the previous Friday. Yushchenko had announced the start of negotiations with Kuchma, Yanukovych, et al, in a process to be mediated by Javier Solana and other EU officials. A lot of people were upset with this. Graffiti appeared in Kyiv and elsewhere reading "No to Negotiations!" Both wings of PORA! opposed the negotiations. People watched anxiously what Yushchenko was up to.
What happened at that time perfectly anticipated the present situation in Ukraine, as people anxiously watch what is going on, and a significant number are upset with the compromise he has made with the oligarchy (it seems to that one may truely say this time that it is the majority of OR supporters who are displeased with this move). Once again, PORA! opposes the negotation/compromise; i.e., in this case they oppose the memorandum and the ridiculous proposal to grant local officials immunity. For people like me, Yushchenko appeared that Friday during the Revolution and appears now once again to be zamjakyj. . .too weak, too willing to compromise. But once again, I have to ask myself whether he deserves today the benefit of a doubt, as I asked myself in the course of the OR. . .
One note about some of the spelling in the piece below: I was, at the time last year, in the habit of using a "J" instead of "Y" in spelling Yushchenko and Yanukovych; I think that "j" is much better for translating the yote, but the Y was used in the press, and someone wrote to me and asked me to change to the "Y," as she said that she was forwarding my pieces to many of her family and friends, and my use of "J" was confusing them. . .
Viktor Jushchenko--Reluctant Revolutionary:
Last Friday night, speaking to the crowd of 150,000 supporters on Kyiv’s Independence Square and to the millions of other supporters on streets and at home throughout Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine, Viktor Jushchenko announced the start of negotiations between the opposition and the government against which he has thrown all of his and supporters’ critical energies this past week, in what has already become known as an Orange Revolution. Jushchenko stated that his purpose in the negotiations was to secure promises for a third run of elections, this time with guarantees from authorities of equal access to the media and of strict adherence to the protocols of free and fair elections. Significantly absent from the stage were Julija Tymoshenko and Oleksandr Moroz, who together with Jushchenko have formed the chore leadership of the parliamentary opposition since 2001, and who have throughout the week appeared with Jushchenko whenever important announcements about the progress of events have been made. Tymoshenko and Moroz have in the past parted ways with Jushchenko over matters of oppositional tactics, while Tymoshenko especially has frequently criticized Jushchenko for his reluctance to take radical action. How can we make sense of what is happening?
No doubt, Jushchenko does not want to become President through a conflict that would alienate up to 30%-to maximum of40% of the population—which is how many actually support Janukovych in Ukraine, the events of this past week have made abundantly clear. No doubt that Jushchenko also fears eruption of violence—yesterday tensions were beginning to reach a high pitch, with incidents of conflict between pro-Jushchenko and pro-Janukovych demonstrators, as well as between pro-Jushchenko demonstrators and special police. On Friday in Kyiv demonstrators began to cut through steal barricades erected in front of the buildings of the presidential administration behind which stand columns of what are believed to be Russian Special Police. Conflict also emerged in the cities of Uzhhorod and Chernihiv—in the former, a unit of Special Police, also suspected to be Russian, arrived to guard State administration buildings; and in the latter, police struck demonstrators with truncheons and fired shots into the air as demonstrators attempted to break their way inside of state administration buildings. And finally, an estimated 5-7,000 Janukovych supporters have made it into the capital, where on Friday they held their own rally outside of Kyiv’s central train station, heightening fears of confrontations taking place on the streets between camps.
These concerns aside, there is the issue of Jushchenko’s personality. He is very well described as a reluctant revolutionary, and it is likely that his reluctance at this point to press forward with demands for a complete turnover of power from authorities to the opposition—which is what most people throughout Ukraine think they have been demonstrating for—is as much a matter of personal preference as it is about concerns over violence and safety. Jushchenko likes “clean” politics and procedures; one only has to listen to the rhetoric he has used in speeches throughout the election campaign, as well as in the many statements he has made against authorities these past years both in the parliament and at opposition rallies, to get a sense of his personality. He wants a “clean” government, a “clean” economy, and a “clean” society, which is also what the vast majority of Ukrainians want as well—and the rhetoric of cleanliness in this context does not have mid-Twentieth Century significance, but rather announces a crusade against corruption in the government, the economy, and society in general. What Ukraine needs is dignified processes, clean procedures, and apparently the revolutionary installation of Jushchenko as President is so unclean a process that Jushchenko is willing to give authorities a third chance to prove themselves as anything other than the shameless, power-hungry monsters that most Ukrainians regard them to be, and what they have in fact been these past thirteen years.
This may be an unfair assessment of what is going on in Jushchenko’s head; indeed, Jushchenko made his announcement only after a meeting was held in Kyiv’s Mariinski Palace between himself and Kuchma, Janukovych and other authorities, all of which was mediated by the EU’s Javier Solana, and with many other European heads of state in attendance. No one yet knows what specifically was discussed in the meeting. Also, Jushchenko stated in his speech to supporters that he has given authorities “one or two” days to “constructively” demonstrate their willingness to accept his demands; if they do not, Jushchenko declared he would call for the immediate return to direct action. Thus Jushchenko has not called off demonstrations, and has asked people to remain in the streets and keep up the pressure, but with the implication that no one does anything to further provoke authorities. All of this contrasts deeply with what Moroz and Tymoshenko have said recently. Oleksandr Moroz suggested Thursday that demonstrators may begin to erect barricades on Kyiv’s streets and railways in order to seize control of movement to and from the capital if authorities do not capitulate to the people’s will that Jushchenko become President. In fact, such actions had already begun to happen Friday, with reports of pro-Jushchenko supporters in a village outside of Kyiv having had blocked a train of pro-Janukovych supporters from reaching the capital. Also, the army has pledged that it would not obey any order to move against demonstrators, and more and more of Kyiv’s police forces have arrived on Independence Square to declare to demonstrators their loyalty to the Ukrainian people and their Orange Revolution. Only the Interior Ministry, which has its own forces, has remained silent.
The simple fact of the matter is that most of the millions of Ukrainians that have been inspired into action this past week have had only one thing on their mind—having Jushchenko installed as president. Few have thought that they have taken to the streets to demand a third election. They have not been shouting in the streets “Jushchenko (is) President!” with the idea in mind of giving authorities a third chance, for in fact, to most people’s minds, Jushchenko has already won the election twice. Furthermore, they have shown their willingness to dig in deep and fight. There is no question about this. All the activities of this past week, the symbolic trials; the resolutions passed in various cities denouncing the elections; the parallel declarations in some cities that recognize Jushchenko as president; the marches on administration buildings in various cities demanding that officials face the people; the millions of people demonstrating day in and out on streets in Kyiv and all over Ukraine despite snow and cold; the people sleeping in the cold on squares in cities throughout Ukraine; the establishment of bank accounts to which people have donated generously and enthusiastically to fund support of demonstrators and the logistics of the ongoing rebellion; the food and medical tents established; the businesses that have donated money and warm clothes; the radio stations giving people advice on how to stay warm and engage in civil disobedience; the joy and hopefulness evident on people’s faces; the hopeful if solemn church services held to attend to the spiritual needs of a people deep in struggle; the frequent chanting of “Together We are Many, We Won't Be Overcome!” all say one thing: that Ukrainians are ready for and willing a long fight to the end.
It is important to remember that Ukraine is a poor and to some extent exhausted nation, impoverished by a rapacious oligarchy and battered by a history of many failed dreams. Ukrainians therefore already are spending a great deal of their emotional and financial capital. There is no doubt that there are people in Kyiv for the first time in their lives, people who may never have personally traveled to the capital where it not for the events of this week. This writer personally knows a few of such people. If authorities play their dirty tricks a third time, it is highly unlikely that so many will be able and/or willing to return to the fight. It is therefore to this writer’s mind highly inadvisable to not make use of the momentum of the moment to press forward for demands of a turnover of power, despite fears of violence. Ukrainians themselves will decide how far they are willing to go, and everything this week indicates that many are willing to make the ultimate sacrifice. Furthermore, given that things have been as peaceful as they have been, that so many police and military figures have declared their open rebellion against authorities, and taking into account the precedent of what happened in Georgia last year as well as the hesitation to take any decisive action displayed by Ukrainian authorities this past week, the suggestion seems to be of a victory right around the corner. I fear that Jushchenko’s move toward compromise Friday only emboldens a dieing animal near its death-throws. Already today, many more of the national deputies in support of Janukovych have felt confident enough to show their faces in parliament again than they have all week long.
Nonetheless, the reaction of Ukrainians to Jushchenko’s move last Friday night is not yet clear. It seems that people are basically ignoring it, continuing on as they have been throughout the week, if having had backed down today in their confrontation with the special police in front of the presidential administration. I hope that Jushchenko’s gamble will not end in disaster for the Ukrainian people. I hope that in the end he proves the wiser.
Now, today, on Oct. 23, 2005, I once again fear that once again he is giving away FAR too much to the old powers.
What happened at that time perfectly anticipated the present situation in Ukraine, as people anxiously watch what is going on, and a significant number are upset with the compromise he has made with the oligarchy (it seems to that one may truely say this time that it is the majority of OR supporters who are displeased with this move). Once again, PORA! opposes the negotation/compromise; i.e., in this case they oppose the memorandum and the ridiculous proposal to grant local officials immunity. For people like me, Yushchenko appeared that Friday during the Revolution and appears now once again to be zamjakyj. . .too weak, too willing to compromise. But once again, I have to ask myself whether he deserves today the benefit of a doubt, as I asked myself in the course of the OR. . .
One note about some of the spelling in the piece below: I was, at the time last year, in the habit of using a "J" instead of "Y" in spelling Yushchenko and Yanukovych; I think that "j" is much better for translating the yote, but the Y was used in the press, and someone wrote to me and asked me to change to the "Y," as she said that she was forwarding my pieces to many of her family and friends, and my use of "J" was confusing them. . .
Viktor Jushchenko--Reluctant Revolutionary:
Last Friday night, speaking to the crowd of 150,000 supporters on Kyiv’s Independence Square and to the millions of other supporters on streets and at home throughout Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine, Viktor Jushchenko announced the start of negotiations between the opposition and the government against which he has thrown all of his and supporters’ critical energies this past week, in what has already become known as an Orange Revolution. Jushchenko stated that his purpose in the negotiations was to secure promises for a third run of elections, this time with guarantees from authorities of equal access to the media and of strict adherence to the protocols of free and fair elections. Significantly absent from the stage were Julija Tymoshenko and Oleksandr Moroz, who together with Jushchenko have formed the chore leadership of the parliamentary opposition since 2001, and who have throughout the week appeared with Jushchenko whenever important announcements about the progress of events have been made. Tymoshenko and Moroz have in the past parted ways with Jushchenko over matters of oppositional tactics, while Tymoshenko especially has frequently criticized Jushchenko for his reluctance to take radical action. How can we make sense of what is happening?
No doubt, Jushchenko does not want to become President through a conflict that would alienate up to 30%-to maximum of40% of the population—which is how many actually support Janukovych in Ukraine, the events of this past week have made abundantly clear. No doubt that Jushchenko also fears eruption of violence—yesterday tensions were beginning to reach a high pitch, with incidents of conflict between pro-Jushchenko and pro-Janukovych demonstrators, as well as between pro-Jushchenko demonstrators and special police. On Friday in Kyiv demonstrators began to cut through steal barricades erected in front of the buildings of the presidential administration behind which stand columns of what are believed to be Russian Special Police. Conflict also emerged in the cities of Uzhhorod and Chernihiv—in the former, a unit of Special Police, also suspected to be Russian, arrived to guard State administration buildings; and in the latter, police struck demonstrators with truncheons and fired shots into the air as demonstrators attempted to break their way inside of state administration buildings. And finally, an estimated 5-7,000 Janukovych supporters have made it into the capital, where on Friday they held their own rally outside of Kyiv’s central train station, heightening fears of confrontations taking place on the streets between camps.
These concerns aside, there is the issue of Jushchenko’s personality. He is very well described as a reluctant revolutionary, and it is likely that his reluctance at this point to press forward with demands for a complete turnover of power from authorities to the opposition—which is what most people throughout Ukraine think they have been demonstrating for—is as much a matter of personal preference as it is about concerns over violence and safety. Jushchenko likes “clean” politics and procedures; one only has to listen to the rhetoric he has used in speeches throughout the election campaign, as well as in the many statements he has made against authorities these past years both in the parliament and at opposition rallies, to get a sense of his personality. He wants a “clean” government, a “clean” economy, and a “clean” society, which is also what the vast majority of Ukrainians want as well—and the rhetoric of cleanliness in this context does not have mid-Twentieth Century significance, but rather announces a crusade against corruption in the government, the economy, and society in general. What Ukraine needs is dignified processes, clean procedures, and apparently the revolutionary installation of Jushchenko as President is so unclean a process that Jushchenko is willing to give authorities a third chance to prove themselves as anything other than the shameless, power-hungry monsters that most Ukrainians regard them to be, and what they have in fact been these past thirteen years.
This may be an unfair assessment of what is going on in Jushchenko’s head; indeed, Jushchenko made his announcement only after a meeting was held in Kyiv’s Mariinski Palace between himself and Kuchma, Janukovych and other authorities, all of which was mediated by the EU’s Javier Solana, and with many other European heads of state in attendance. No one yet knows what specifically was discussed in the meeting. Also, Jushchenko stated in his speech to supporters that he has given authorities “one or two” days to “constructively” demonstrate their willingness to accept his demands; if they do not, Jushchenko declared he would call for the immediate return to direct action. Thus Jushchenko has not called off demonstrations, and has asked people to remain in the streets and keep up the pressure, but with the implication that no one does anything to further provoke authorities. All of this contrasts deeply with what Moroz and Tymoshenko have said recently. Oleksandr Moroz suggested Thursday that demonstrators may begin to erect barricades on Kyiv’s streets and railways in order to seize control of movement to and from the capital if authorities do not capitulate to the people’s will that Jushchenko become President. In fact, such actions had already begun to happen Friday, with reports of pro-Jushchenko supporters in a village outside of Kyiv having had blocked a train of pro-Janukovych supporters from reaching the capital. Also, the army has pledged that it would not obey any order to move against demonstrators, and more and more of Kyiv’s police forces have arrived on Independence Square to declare to demonstrators their loyalty to the Ukrainian people and their Orange Revolution. Only the Interior Ministry, which has its own forces, has remained silent.
The simple fact of the matter is that most of the millions of Ukrainians that have been inspired into action this past week have had only one thing on their mind—having Jushchenko installed as president. Few have thought that they have taken to the streets to demand a third election. They have not been shouting in the streets “Jushchenko (is) President!” with the idea in mind of giving authorities a third chance, for in fact, to most people’s minds, Jushchenko has already won the election twice. Furthermore, they have shown their willingness to dig in deep and fight. There is no question about this. All the activities of this past week, the symbolic trials; the resolutions passed in various cities denouncing the elections; the parallel declarations in some cities that recognize Jushchenko as president; the marches on administration buildings in various cities demanding that officials face the people; the millions of people demonstrating day in and out on streets in Kyiv and all over Ukraine despite snow and cold; the people sleeping in the cold on squares in cities throughout Ukraine; the establishment of bank accounts to which people have donated generously and enthusiastically to fund support of demonstrators and the logistics of the ongoing rebellion; the food and medical tents established; the businesses that have donated money and warm clothes; the radio stations giving people advice on how to stay warm and engage in civil disobedience; the joy and hopefulness evident on people’s faces; the hopeful if solemn church services held to attend to the spiritual needs of a people deep in struggle; the frequent chanting of “Together We are Many, We Won't Be Overcome!” all say one thing: that Ukrainians are ready for and willing a long fight to the end.
It is important to remember that Ukraine is a poor and to some extent exhausted nation, impoverished by a rapacious oligarchy and battered by a history of many failed dreams. Ukrainians therefore already are spending a great deal of their emotional and financial capital. There is no doubt that there are people in Kyiv for the first time in their lives, people who may never have personally traveled to the capital where it not for the events of this week. This writer personally knows a few of such people. If authorities play their dirty tricks a third time, it is highly unlikely that so many will be able and/or willing to return to the fight. It is therefore to this writer’s mind highly inadvisable to not make use of the momentum of the moment to press forward for demands of a turnover of power, despite fears of violence. Ukrainians themselves will decide how far they are willing to go, and everything this week indicates that many are willing to make the ultimate sacrifice. Furthermore, given that things have been as peaceful as they have been, that so many police and military figures have declared their open rebellion against authorities, and taking into account the precedent of what happened in Georgia last year as well as the hesitation to take any decisive action displayed by Ukrainian authorities this past week, the suggestion seems to be of a victory right around the corner. I fear that Jushchenko’s move toward compromise Friday only emboldens a dieing animal near its death-throws. Already today, many more of the national deputies in support of Janukovych have felt confident enough to show their faces in parliament again than they have all week long.
Nonetheless, the reaction of Ukrainians to Jushchenko’s move last Friday night is not yet clear. It seems that people are basically ignoring it, continuing on as they have been throughout the week, if having had backed down today in their confrontation with the special police in front of the presidential administration. I hope that Jushchenko’s gamble will not end in disaster for the Ukrainian people. I hope that in the end he proves the wiser.
Now, today, on Oct. 23, 2005, I once again fear that once again he is giving away FAR too much to the old powers.
